Extreme Value Theory
Dr. Amir Khorrami Chokami
Università di Cagliari
Abstract
This doctoral course provides a comprehensive introduction to Extreme Value Theory (EVT), covering both classical probabilistic foundations and modern statistical modeling tools, with particular attention to dependence structures and applications to real data.
We begin with the fundamental limit theorems for maxima and the characterization of max-stable laws (described by the so-called Generalised Extreme-Value family of distributions). We then introduce the Point-Process approach to extremes and the Peaks-over-Threshold (POT) method (leading to the Generalised Pareto Distribution). The probabilistic foundations of extremes are followed by the statistical aspects of the theory, including parameter estimation and diagnostic techniques, all implemented in the R software. A fundamental topic of the course regards the behavior of extremes under dependence. We study how to describe the tail dependence of multiple variables and the connections with the multivariate extreme value distributions. We then address extremes of stationary sequences, including mixing conditions, the extremal index and the clustering of extreme events.
Outline
- Fundamentals of Extreme Value Theory and Max-stable Distributions
- Point Process Representation of Extremes
- Peaks-over-Threshold Method and the Generalized Pareto Distribution
- Statistical Inference: Estimation, Diagnostics
- Tail Dependence and Multivariate Extremes
- Extremes of Stationary Processes: Mixing, Clustering, Extremal Index
- Applications and R Implementations
Schedule
TBA
Exam
The final assessment consists of reading and presenting a research article selected from a list provided during the course.
References
- Beirlant, J., Goegebeur, Y., Segers, J., Teugels, J., Statistics of Extremes: Theory and Applications, Wiley, 2004
- Coles, S., An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values, Springer, 2001
- de Haan, L., Ferreira, A., Extreme Value Theory: An Introduction, Springer, 2006
- Resnick, S. I., Extreme Values, Regular Variation and Point Processes, Springer, 1987